Even with the defending 450MX champion sitting out the season, there’s still a lot to look forward to in the premier class this summer. The field is deep and could provide the most competitive championship battle in the class since Ryan Villopoto, Ryan Dungey and Chad Reed traded wins in 2011.
Below we take a deeper dive into some of the leading title hopefuls and a few other riders looking to factor into the mix throughout the season.
Ryan Dungey
Number: 5
Team: Red Bull KTM
What to watch: How aggressive will Dungey be in going after moto wins?
While Ryan Dungey may not be the universal title prediction, he’s certainly going to at least enter the season as the early favorite. The only rider other than the sidelined-for-the-season Ryan Villopoto to win a 450MX title in the past four years, Dungey won championships in 2010 and 2012, dominating the series in convincing fashion both times.
Ryan Dungey testing at Glen Helen last Friday. (Photo: Matt Rice)
Even with a deep field of contenders to deal with this time around, the factor that sets Dungey apart is his consistency. In the last two years, the Red Bull KTM rider has posted just one single DNF. Over the span of the last four seasons – a timeframe that encompasses 96 motos – he has finished on the podium in all but ten of those motos. The takeaway: even if he doesn’t dominate all season, Dungey is not going to give a big chunk of points away to anyone else. He just doesn’t make those kinds of mistakes.
So, why should the rest of the field feel hopeful? Dungey might be a lock to run in the top-three every time he hits the track, but if the Supercross season was any indication, he can be beaten. He only took the checkered flag at one of 17 races, while James Stewart, Chad Reed and Ken Roczen all reeled off multiple race wins. If one of those riders can consistently finish ahead of Dungey and avoid any big points-losing mistakes, that could be the recipe for a championship.
James Stewart
Number: 7
Team: Yoshimura Suzuki
What to watch: Which version of James Stewart hits the track this year?
James Stewart is also getting plenty of attention as a championship pick after a strong Supercross campaign which included five race wins and a three-week stretch of domination towards the end of the season. Fans may also recall that when going head-to-head with Dungey outdoors two years ago, Stewart won the first four motos before a crash at Thunder Valley derailed his season. Clearly he has the speed to contend for a title – there doesn’t seem to be a question of that.
Stewart’s lone moto win in 2013 came at Spring Creek. (Photo: George Crosland)
One of only three riders with a moto win outdoors last year, Stewart should be in the mix week in and week out. The question is, can he keep himself up front over the course of a full 24 motos, or will a few bad races here and there cost him the points he needs for a title?
Chad Reed
Number: 22
Team: Discount Tire Racing/TwoTwo Motorsports
What to watch: Will Reed’s health allow him to contend for a title right away?
Many people were ready to write Chad Reed off after a 2013 season in which the 2009 champion largely struggled to crack the top-ten outdoors and ended up just 15th in points. In the offseason, Reed’s team switched from Honda to Kawasaki, and judging by his results early in the Supercross season, the change seemed to be exactly what was needed.
Reed is going green this year. (Photo: Simon Cudby/Racer X)
Just as Reed was silencing the critics though, his season ended early with a shoulder injury. Off the bike for nearly three months, Reed’s riding again and preparing for the first race but raised concerns in an interview a few weeks ago, saying “I think with just a month of preparation, it’s going to be tough to be at my best at Glen Helen.”
Ken Roczen
Number: 94
Team: Red Bull KTM
What to watch: How quickly will Roczen adjust to life in the premier class?
With fellow 450 Class rookie Eli Tomac sidelined with a broken collarbone, Ken Roczen is likely to wind up as the top rookie in the class this year. Should he be considered a contender for the title though?
The young German getting in some practice at Glen Helen. (Photo: Matt Rice)
Roczen got off to a hot start in Supercross but faded a bit as the long season – his first racing all 17 rounds – went on. The outdoor season is a grueling 12-round affair but physically, the Red Bull KTM rider thinks he’ll be able to handle the challenge of racing the big bike. “I’ve been working really hard,” Roczen told us. “I had to work harder because we have a faster and heavier bike. That is basically the biggest thing we need to deal with, plus track conditions and heat. So I definitely think my body is way better than last year. It definitely will not be easier, but I’ve tried to put myself in the best position I can.”
Trey Canard
Number: 41
Team: Honda Muscle Milk
What to watch: Will preseason hype turn into regular-season success?
The word on Trey Canard is that he’s been fast in testing – very fast. He’s been relegated to more of a dark horse championship pick over the last few years, but if those strong lap times repeat themselves when the gate drops at Glen Helen, his name may be firmly in the discussion this season. Canard finished fourth in the 450MX standings last year and nearly won a moto (and an overall) at Spring Creek.
Is this the season Canard lives up to his once-lofty expectations? (Photo: Matt Rice)
The other question with Canard is always whether he can stay healthy for a full season. After breaking his arm back in November, Canard sat out much of the Supercross season but returned for the final five rounds and recorded three finishes inside the top-five.
Justin Barcia
Number: 51
Team: Honda Muscle Milk
What to watch: Was Barcia’s Supercross season a minor bump in the road or a sign of things to come?
Although he failed to win a moto last summer, it was a promising rookie season in the 450MX Class for Justin Barcia that saw him finish third overall in points. A strong starter, his five holeshots tied James Stewart for the most in the class. His Supercross campaign earlier this year left a lot to be desired though, as he wasn’t battling for wins and podiums consistently like he was last season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him right the ship outdoors this summer.
Justin Barcia, always one to show off a little style. (Photo: Matt Rice)
The Rest of the Field
A broken collarbone has sidelined the second high-profile member of the 450MX rookie class – GEICO Honda’s Eli Tomac. There’s no defined timetable on his return to racing at the moment, but when the return comes, there will be a lot of excitement surrounding his debut in the class. Can Tomac contend for podiums right away? Will he show enough to put himself in the mix as a title contender in 2015?
Davi Millsaps is back in action but will face some big questions this season. He hasn’t raced in over a year due to two separate knee injuries and said in a recent interview with Racer X that he’ll need to use the first few rounds to get back into racing shape. Another question that looms is how well he’ll be able to adjust to the team’s offseason change from Suzuki to KTM. Millsaps noted in the same interview that he’s “only been on [the bike] for a couple weeks here and there” and implied that adjustments still need to be made. “We’re going in the right direction to make it better,” he said. “We can leave it at that.”
Weston Peick finally has his first factory ride. (Photo: Matt Rice)
One of the running themes last season was befuddlement over how Weston Peick and Brett Metcalfe ended up without offers for factory rides. Peick only raced five rounds but turned in some strong performances, highlighted by a career-best fourth overall finish (5-5) at Utah. This season, the popular privateer was finally offered a spot on the RCH Racing team and will have the chance to prove he deserves to stick around in 2015.
The defending champion of the Canadian Nationals, Brett Metcalfe finds himself with a similar opportunity after being tapped by Monster Energy Kawasaki to take the place of the injured Ryan Villopoto. Traditionally a consistent top-five threat, Metcalfe will enter the season both healthy and fresh considering that, unlike most of his competitors, he did not race Supercross. Like Peick, Metcalfe could be auditioning for a 2015 roster spot with his team.
Metcalfe’s teammate in the Monster Energy Kawasaki rig, Jake Weimer, is another rider looking to showcase himself for teams this summer. Despite finishing a respectable sixth in 450MX points last year (and third-place the season prior), his contract is up after this season and he may find himself on a different team next year.
Where will Weimer end up in 2015? (Photo: Matt Rice)
Other riders who should challenge for top-tens include the JGR Yamaha duo of Josh Grant and Justin Brayton (although the latter is currently sidelined with a knee injury), the remarkably consistent Andrew Short and talented 450MX sophomore Malcolm Stewart. Mike Alessi will also be in the mix at Glen Helen but after that will head north with the MotoConcepts team to contest the Canadian Nationals.
The gate drops on the 2014 season this Saturday. As part of the coverage, ProMotocross.com will be streaming all four motos from Glen Helen (and every round this season) live online.